Posted by Manny Nkiwane on Wednesday, November 27, 2019 at 11:39 PM By Manny Nkiwane / November 27, 2019 Comment
In the month of October, the Province as a whole experienced an increase in sales year over year of just over 8%, but this is still down about 10% from the ten-year averages. The increase in job growth in our non-traditional sectors, which often offer lower salaries than the traditional sectors, seem to be driving the market activity and migration right now. As a result of this, we are seeing the most movement in the lower price points in the market, most notably in the larger centres of Calgary, Edmonton and Lethbridge.
Some interesting points to note, in the Calgary area, the condo and attached homes sectors are helping uplift sales which is something we have not been able to say for quite some time. In fact, for the fourth consecutive month the overall sales have increased over the previous years sales in the Calgary area markets. While most of the markets have experienced an uptick year over year, the Central Alberta and Grand Prairie markets have experienced a decline in sales compared to the same time last year.
It is very common to see listing inventory drop as we come into the Winter months, and this year is no different in most of the Provincial markets. With the uptick in
sales, along with the lower amount of new listings coming onto the market, the inventory rate will continue to decline which will help to maintain prices. The exceptions to this are the Lethbridge and Grand Prairie regions which have had a large uptick in the inventory which could lead to further slowdowns in those areas.
To monitor the potential of the developing trends, we have been paying attention to the showing data. The showing activity for CIR inventory was over 5,600 showings in October. The activity steadily increased throughout the month averaging 1,228 per week right up until the last week which had a brief pullback to 766 showings in that week. The showings quickly turned around in November bouncing back with 1330 showings in the first week of November. The most showings were happening in the price ranges under $500,000. The price point that had the most activity was in the $300,000 - $400,000 range which accounted for over 30% of the showings. Something to watch will be the $500,000 - $600,000 range as we had 726 showings in that price range, and the $1M+ range as we received 170 showings in that market. We anticipate that as the lower-priced markets are selling, the showings in the higher price points will increase as the move up buyers start shopping. This will then translate to sales in the higher price points. Moving forward we will be monitoring the showings more closely to better anticipate where the market is going.
Based on current sales and showing trends we don't anticipate as great of a slow down through November December that we have experienced in the past couple of years. With some shifts happening in different segments, price ranges, and communities/areas, pricing a home properly will be a large determining factor if it sells through the slower markets of Winter.
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